UPST
BEAR
2026-05-19
Overnight Institutional Flow Signal
Score
8/10
Move
5.5%
Flow
$2.4M
AI Trade Thesis
UPST BEAR $26P Jun 18 '26. Fading the recent insider-buy-driven bounce as the massive $0.46 EPS miss and rising 10-year yields (4.49%) create a toxic fundamental backdrop for high-beta fintech names. Entry near $27.94 targets a retest of the multi-year lows near $24. Risk: Continued aggressive insider buying or a surprise dovish pivot in macro inflation data.
Flow Breakdown
Call Volume
$762K
Put Volume
$1.6M
Flow Intent
DIRECTIONAL
Catalyst
Earnings Miss
Recommended Setup
ContractO:UPST260618P00026000
Contract Score11.412/10
Risk/Reward1.8:1
Delta-0.32
Key Levels
Resistance$28.92
Support$26.22
Price$27.94
SMA 50 / 200$29 / $44
52W Range$24 — $87
News & Catalyst Analysis
Key Headline
Upstart shares tumble as Q1 earnings miss by $0.46 despite revenue beat
News Summary
Upstart is reeling from a massive Q1 earnings miss, reporting a loss of $0.07 per share against an expected profit of $0.39, which has overshadowed a slight revenue beat. The bearish institutional flow is likely to persist as rising Treasury yields and 'sticky' inflation data continue to compress margins and dampen the outlook for AI-driven loan originations.
Flow Intent Analysis
The bearish flow is a strategic bet on a technical breakdown below the $26 support level following a failed recovery attempt fueled by insider buying.
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