UAN
BULL
2026-05-15
Overnight Institutional Flow Signal
Score
3/10
Move
3.0%
Flow
$61.7M
Engine Flags(1/5 patterns matched — diagnostic, not a trade signal)
📈
Strong Call FlowAggressive bullish accumulation
AI Trade Thesis
UAN BULL. Entry at $126 following the post-distribution dip. Institutional conviction is extreme ($60M flow) following a Q1 earnings beat ($4.72 EPS) and 34% YoY surge in UAN realized prices. Target $135 recovery; risk is margin pressure from rising natural gas feedstock costs.
Flow Breakdown
Call Volume
$60.3M
Put Volume
$1.4M
Flow Intent
DIRECTIONAL
Catalyst
Technical Breakout
Recommended Setup
ContractO:UAN260618C00125000
Contract Score8.519/10
Risk/Reward0.3:1
Delta0.56
Key Levels
Resistance$128.71
Support$119.00
Price$126.60
SMA 50 / 200$129 / $105
52W Range$63 — $140
News & Catalyst Analysis
Key Headline
CVR Partners (UAN) Reports Strong Q1 2026 Earnings with $4.00 Distribution and 103% Plant Utilization
News Summary
UAN's recent 3% decline is a technical retracement following its May 11 record date for a massive $4.00/unit cash distribution. The $60M bullish options flow represents a staggering ~4% of the total market cap, indicating aggressive institutional accumulation at the post-distribution support level.
Flow Intent Analysis
The massive $60M bullish volume against a -3% move is a 'buy the dip' directional bet on a price recovery after the distribution-related sell-off, rather than a hedge.
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