RACE
BEAR
2026-05-19
Overnight Institutional Flow Signal
Score
1/10
Move
1.1%
Flow
$1.9M
Engine Flags(1/5 patterns matched — diagnostic, not a trade signal)
🛡️
Institutional HedgingWhen big money hedges, the underlying moves
AI Trade Thesis
RACE BEAR $280P Jun 26 '26. Institutional flow is targeting a break below the recent buyback support zone near $280 as long-term valuation concerns clash with current market pricing. Entry near $324 for a macro hedge against luxury sector multiple compression. Risk: Sustained buyback volume from the €3.5B program provides a hard floor for the stock.
Flow Breakdown
Call Volume
$527K
Put Volume
$1.4M
Flow Intent
HEDGING
Catalyst
Insider Activity
Recommended Setup
ContractO:RACE260626P00280000
Contract Score7.517/10
Risk/Reward0.3:1
Delta-0.10
Key Levels
Resistance$339.75
Support$319.72
Price$324.77
SMA 50 / 200$340 / $390
52W Range$313 — $519
News & Catalyst Analysis
Key Headline
Ferrari N.V.: Periodic Report on the Buyback Program (May 18, 2026)
News Summary
Ferrari (RACE) released a periodic update on its €3.5 billion buyback program, reporting the repurchase of 97,327 shares at an average price near €280. While the stock bounced 1.1%, institutional flow is positioning for a breach of this support level, likely hedging against a continued valuation reset following a 35% decline over the past year.
Flow Intent Analysis
The long-dated $280P Jun '26 position is a deep OTM hedge likely protecting equity holdings against a breach of the support level where the company's buyback activity is currently concentrated.
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