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Read more →Score
8/10
Move
3.8%
Flow
$10.1M
AI Trade Thesis
COP BULL $115C Jul 17 '26. The stock's recent -3.8% plunge is a direct reaction to the sudden U.S.-Iran peace deal announcement, which stripped geopolitical risk premium out of crude oil but represents an overdone sell-off for a premier, highly efficient E&P player like ConocoPhillips. Entering near the $112 level leverages a high-conviction recovery back toward the fair-value gap above $115 as physical crude markets stabilize. Risk: A prolonged collapse in Brent and WTI crude below key structural support levels.
Flow Breakdown
Call Volume
$9.0M
Put Volume
$1.1M
Flow Intent
DIRECTIONAL
Catalyst
Macro
Recommended Setup
ContractO:COP260717C00115000
Strike$115.00
Expiration2026-07-17
Mid Price$3.52
Contract Score9.271/10
Risk/Reward5.2:1
Delta0.42
Key Levels
Resistance$120.24
Support$110.73
Price$112.26
SMA 50 / 200$120 / $105
52W Range$84 — $136
RSI (14)40
News & Catalyst Analysis
Key Headline
Energy shares sink as U.S.-Iran peace deal lowers oil disruption risk
News Summary
ConocoPhillips (COP) stock fell roughly 3.8% alongside a broader energy sector sell-off triggered by a massive drop in crude oil prices. Crude benchmarks crashed following the announcement of a historic peace deal between the United States and Iran, which opens up key shipping lanes and removes supply disruption premiums. Institutional flow is positioning for a tactical bounce or protecting a short-term bottom as the flow volume of over $9 million is heavily concentrated in bullish longer-dated calls.
Flow Intent Analysis
The massive $9M bullish flow stepped in right at critical technical support ($111-$112 level) after a sharp, geopolitically driven macro shock, which represents a deliberate contrarian bet on a bounce rather than hedging an existing long equity position.
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